Andrija Djurovic
Senior Manager, Risk Advisory - Central Europe at Deloitte
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๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ฌ๐ข๐๐๐ค ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐งThe Vasicek Distribution holds a special place in credit risk modeling, finding applications in various areas including, but not limited to, IRB modeling, capital requirement calculations, IFRS9 modeling, and measuring concentration risk. Like other statistical distributions, the Vasicek distribution follows a specific functional form with parameters requiring estimation.Check out my new presentation, which briefly introduces the Vasicek distribution.In addition to this presentation, I am preparing to publish a Shiny application dedicated to fitting the parameters of the Vasicek distribution to observed data. Those interested can follow the GitHub link in the comments section to stay updated on upcoming announcements.
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Andrija Djurovic
Senior Manager, Risk Advisory - Central Europe at Deloitte
6d
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GitHub repository:https://github.com/andrija-djurovic/adsfcr
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Shakeel I.
Performance Analytics
5d
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Banks apply the Vasicek model for credit risk in the IRB approach. The Probability Density Function in Slide 3 (of Andrija Djurovicโs excellent presentation) is important to Banks. For estimating parameters, a particular case of the maximum likelihood method (Slide 4) is the ASRF model. The ASRF model's parameters can also be estimated using probit-linear regression.BASEL adopted the assumptions of a normal distribution for the systematic and idiosyncratic risk factors. While IFRS9 focuses on Expected Loss (EL) for provisioning, BASEL capital requirement is taken to be the contribution of an exposure to the Unexpected Loss (UL). For BASEL, the regulator prescribes the asset correlation (asset class-wise).Under some constraints (single systematic risk factor, infinite number of small loans, dependence among obligors), Mertonโs model protracts to the ASRF model. Vasicek used the standard geometric Brownian motion model, providing an analytical solution to model loss distribution. The result is a โStylized Loss Distributionโ which visualizes some essential metrics for a Bankโs capital requirement calculations as follows:Unexpected Loss (i.e. ASRF Capital) = Value-at-Risk @ 99.9% โ Expected LossExcellent post!
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Prajnaneil Pal
Climate & Credit Risk Analytics
6d
Very useful methodology.
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